myASQ Membership Trend

13 Replies

myASQ Membership Trend

Posted by Harry Rowe on Dec 20, 2018 9:56 am

I've taken a look at the myASQ membership trend, based on numbers presented by Cynthia Nazario for April through September and extended by point data posted in October by Dan Zyrmiak and the number of members reported by myASQ this morning (4302).

Based on the slowing rate of membership growth, I decided to fit an exponential rise curve to see how well it fits, and what it might predict.

The curve that best fits the data is one that has the formula

y = 6024 * (1 - exp( -.1391 * x ) ) where x is months since introduction.

This is a curve that asymptotically approaches an upper limit of 6024, and reaches 6000 at roughly 36 months.

Plotting the actual values on the curve shows a relatively good fit.

 
Attached files
Harry Rowe Certified Manager of Quality and Organizational Excellence ASQ Senior Member

Re: myASQ Membership Trend

Posted by Daniel Zrymiak on Dec 20, 2018 10:10 am

Hi Harry Rowe‍ 

I actively pursue new people to request Add Friend (rewarding me with 2 myASQ points) and new posts and files to Like and Download (rewarding me with 1 myASQ point).

Yesterday myASQ experienced unusual growth (over 100 new members).  This was explained by Cynthia Nazario‍ as having a new community automatically imported into myASQ.  If more surges like this occur, then the enrolment of members in myASQ could reasonably exceed 6,000 members.

I also think that the current totals are reflective of the low percentage of activated geographic and technical communities within myASQ.  Once a higher percentage are brought online, their membership will follow.

I also commend the dedicated ASQ staff members like Gretchen Peterson‍  , Trish Borzon‍, and Seiche Sanders‍  for their promotion of ASQ content and publications, which draws in positive posts from others and reflects the best characteristics of ASQ.  In 2019, I will shift my focus from the controversial aspects of ASQ's administrative minutiae; redirecting and pivoting back to the excellent content, publications, and individual member benefits which ASQ provides with more abundance than any competing society or association for Quality professionals and practitioners.
 

Re: myASQ Membership Trend

Posted by Harry Rowe on Dec 20, 2018 10:44 am

Dan,

This is a classic example of how two reasonable people can reach opposite conclusions from the same data. When I saw the comment about an automatic upload of multiple new members I interpreted it as artificial inflation of membership, since these new members are not voluntary participants. Thus I would conclude the true number of participants is being overestimated.

But it's just a model, and an early one at that.
Harry Rowe Certified Manager of Quality and Organizational Excellence ASQ Senior Member

Re: myASQ Membership Trend

Posted by Trish Borzon on Dec 20, 2018 11:34 am

Thanks Daniel Zrymiak‍ for bringing me into the conversation.  We made a decision not to automatically add all members into the community.  Since the community was new, we wanted conversations to begin and more Groups created before adding too many people. I also believe it should be a choice for our members.  I added the top 3 steps to take advantage of your membership (Joining the discussion on myASQ being #1) to our "welcome" and "Thank you for renewing", messages in the end of July to encourage use.  We've seen a steady uptick in the numbers because of these efforts.   

As we learn the best ways to use and feature myASQ, you will see additional areas where we will incorporating 'conversations' in different areas of the web. 

It's all very exciting!  I love the catching up on what members are looking for, their needs, and wants.  What a great tool to capture the Voice of the Customer! 

Re: myASQ Membership Trend

Posted by Daniel Zrymiak on Dec 20, 2018 1:41 pm

Hi Trish Borzon‍ 

I am pleased to introduce Harry Rowe‍ as one of the resident experts on VoC within the ASQ context.  If myASQ wants to be a VoC interface, they would do very well to engage Harry's considerable proven experience.  You may already be aware of his work, so if I am preaching to the choir, I apologize :)

I think myASQ is still in the Storming and Norming phases, as there are still boundary issues being determined and clarified.

Re: myASQ Membership Trend

Posted by Trish Borzon on Dec 20, 2018 2:13 pm

thanks - I'm well aware of Harry Rowe‍'s work.  Great stuff!  However, I'm more looking at VOC as a bystander.  What are people asking? What are they looking for?  The information gleaned from conversations can help us to fulfill that need.  

Re: myASQ Membership Trend

Posted by Dan Burrows on Dec 21, 2018 7:02 pm

Not only is Harry Rowe‍ excellent at VOC, but he is pretty good with a slide rule too.

Rocking it old school, Harry! ;-)
Dan Burrows ASQ Reliability & Risk Division - Chair

Re: myASQ Membership Trend

Posted by Dan Burrows on Dec 22, 2018 1:44 pm

Harry Rowe‍ 
Please don't take the slide rule comment I made to be an ageist thing.  I kick myself for never learning how to use one.

My only intent is to show my great admiration of you and your service to ASQ and the fact that you make your claims based on facts and data and actual statistical analysis which seems to be kind of a lost art even with Quality practitioners.

However... when the robots with their artificial intelligence finally reach the point of singularity and try to exterminate the human race by disabling our technologies, I will be depending on you and your trusty slide rule to save us, John Connor, oops, I mean Harry Rowe.   

I even created a new tag on myASQ - "Harry will save us"   ;-)
Dan Burrows ASQ Reliability & Risk Division - Chair

Re: myASQ Membership Trend

Posted by Harry Rowe on Dec 22, 2018 7:17 pm

Dan Burrows,

Funny. I still have some of those slide rules from the "olden days" (late 1960's). The bamboo ones from Post and K&E were considered the best, but the machined aluminum ones from Pickett were making inroads. (They didn't have to be adjusted when the humidity changed.) But I started programming computers in 1968. When I undertake a math or statistics problem now, I usually resort to R (free download for Mac, Windows, or Linux). Machine learning is one of my current interests.

One of my nicknames (used affectionately, I hope) is "older than dirt". No offense taken.
Harry Rowe Certified Manager of Quality and Organizational Excellence ASQ Senior Member

Re: myASQ Membership Trend

Posted by Dan Burrows on Dec 22, 2018 8:08 pm

Oh, the humanity! Harry Rowe‍   You're helping the machines?

We're all goners for sure!

Well, hopefully like the lyrics from the 90's song, We'll make great pets.

I'm changing the tag on myASQ to - "Will Harry save us?"
Dan Burrows ASQ Reliability & Risk Division - Chair

Re: myASQ Membership Trend

Posted by Harry Rowe on Jan 18, 2019 8:13 am

I just added the current myASQ membership value (4701 as of this morning) and reran the curve fit based on the 10 months of reported numbers.

An exponential curve still fits the actual data quite well. The model that best fits the data now is

6398 * ( 1 - exp( -0.128 * months ) )

That is a curve that asymptotically approaches 6398 and reaches 6000 at approximately 23 months. This is slightly more optimistic than the maximum of 6024 with 6000 by month 36.
Attached files
Harry Rowe Certified Manager of Quality and Organizational Excellence ASQ Senior Member

Re: myASQ Membership Trend

Posted by Dan Burrows on Jan 18, 2019 2:45 pm

Harry Rowe‍ 

"Slide Rule Harry" at your service.

I am not going to let this go. 

I even made a tag for you - Ha!
Dan Burrows ASQ Reliability & Risk Division - Chair

Re: myASQ Membership Trend

Posted by Harry Rowe on Feb 22, 2019 9:28 am

I ran the myASQ membership trend model again this morning with the current membership of 5149. The resulting equation is

7017.4*( 1-exp(-.112*months) ).

That is a curve that asymptotically approaches 7017, first crossing 7000 in month 54.

Over the last three iterations with additional data points, the terminal value has increased slightly from 6017 to 6398 to 7017, while the exponential factor has decreased from .139 to .128 to .112.

If you're wondering why I haven't provided an R-squared value for the fit, it's because R-squared is not a good metric for nonlinear regression.
Attached files
Harry Rowe Certified Manager of Quality and Organizational Excellence ASQ Senior Member

Re: myASQ Membership Trend

Posted by Amanda Foster on Feb 26, 2019 10:00 am

Interesting analysis as always. Thank you Harry Rowe‍!
Amanda Foster, ASQ CQA